Greek radical left Syriza prepares for power under Tsipras By Giorgos Christides Thessaloniki, Greece (BBC-news)

A large portrait of Marxist revolutionary Rosa Luxemburg hangs in the Thessaloniki office of Nikos Samanidis, a founder member of Greece's Coalition of the Radical Left, better known as Syriza.

With many Greeks exhausted by five years of recession, tax hikes and record unemployment rates, Syriza and its firebrand leader Alexis Tsipras are tipped to win the early elections that must be called, according to the Greek constitution, if parliament fails to elect a new head of state by 29 December.

"After decades on the defensive, the left is staging a comeback. Not just in Greece, but in Europe and Latin America as well," said Mr Samanidis, a top official of Syriza in the country's second city.

Alluring as it may prove to Greek voters, the prospect of a leftist party coming to power in Europe's most indebted country is rattling the markets and European capitals.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has warned parliamentarians that if they fail to elect a new president, Greece could risk a disastrous exit from the eurozone.

Syriza won the European elections in Greece in May and are still leading in the opinion polls

The Athens Stock Exchange posted its biggest drop on record on 9 December, while borrowing costs for Greece have skyrocketed amid the political uncertainty.

A number of senior European officials have urged voters to support the ruling coalition of conservatives and social democrats. "I wouldn't like extreme forces to come to power. I would prefer if known faces show up," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker recently told journalists, commenting on the chances of a general election in Greece.

'Still radical'

While Rosa Luxemburg may adorn its offices, Syriza is not the revolutionary force that her Spartacists represented in Germany a century ago.

As the party draws closer to real power, it has softened many of its sharp edges and tried to build bridges, even with City hedge funds. Syriza is vowing to keep Greece within the eurozone and has reassured creditors it will refrain from unilateral decisions on the debt issue.

A portrait of Marxist revolutionary Rosa Luxemburg in Nikos Samanidis' office indicates Syriza's political leanings

Far from being destructive, Syriza's political proposals offer a reasonable way out of austerity and a chance to replace existing bailout laws with new ones, argues political economist Yanis Varoufakis.

"The first priority is renegotiating with creditors. Syriza needs to speak the language of truth about the continuing triple bankruptcy of the country - public debt, banks, private sector - something no Greek government has done so far. Then they need to table positions that the average German will find reasonable."

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“Start Quote

The top 10%, yes, they obviously do have reason to worry”

Nikos SamanidisSyriza founder member

But Syriza and its 40-year-old leader are still seen by many in the Greek and European establishment as unknown and potentially dangerous quantities.

Mr Tsipras has warned markets that they "will have to dance to the tune" of his government, while Syriza promises to boost public spending, reverse privatisations, increase salaries and pensions and repeal bailout laws liberalising the markets.

Nikos Samanidis emphasises that the prospect of power has not blunted the radical nature of the party, despite its meteoric rise from relative obscurity to frontrunner in little over two years.

"The rich, the elites, the markets, the super-rich, the top 10%, yes, they obviously do have reason to worry," he says.

"They will lose their privileges. Our voter base has expanded greatly, but the grassroots, radical nature of Syriza has been preserved thanks to the crisis. Our party has not and will not sever its ties with the streets, with the social movements it arose from."

Syriza was formed in 2004 as a coalition of groups and parties ranging from Maoists to greens. Before 2012 its electoral appeal had been of little consequence for Greece's political system, never exceeding 5% of the vote. It only became a unitary party in 2013.

But in 2012, in the apogee of the Greek crisis, Syriza took the political establishment by storm, polling close to 27% in the June general elections and eclipsing the social democrats to become the second-largest party in the country. In the European Parliament elections in May 2014, Syriza emerged victorious, polling close to 27% of the vote.

No fear

Colleagues see him as an ordinary, decent man while critics see him as arrogant

Mr Tsipras, the youngest political leader in Greece's history, was instrumental in transforming Syriza from an also-ran to a potential ruling party. Known for his rhetorical skills, his dislike of neckties and his good looks, Mr Tsipras rose to the leadership of Syriza in 2008 and was elected to parliament in 2009.

"The economic crisis and the collapse of traditional parties certainly helped Syriza grow its influence, but it was Alexis Tsipras who catapulted the party," says Christoforos Vernardakis, Professor of Political Science at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and founder of the public opinion survey company VPRC.

"This happened because Tsipras is young and knows no fear. He took a defensive left and turned it into a credible choice for government."

Despite his undoubted charisma, several Syriza members and officials who know Mr Tsipras personally describe him as "an everyday, decent person".

"With Alexis we go a long way back. We used to hang out and I can tell you he is a normal, decent guy. Even as a leader, he likes collective processes and decisions," said Mr Samanidis.

Critics, on the other hand, see Mr Tsipras as arrogant, inexperienced and power hungry - a maverick politician willing to sacrifice Greece to rise to power.

Long-time friend Nikos Karanikas rejects this description of Syriza's "comrade-president".

"Although it was clear from the start he was a leader, it took some encouragement from us for him to come forward and take the lead - he had no lust for power," said Mr Karanikas, a member of the political bureau of Syriza's largest constituent group, Synaspismos.

EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said he would prefer Greece to maintain its political status quo

Tsipras, he argues, still lives in the middle class Athens neighbourhood of Kypseli, and cut his professional teeth while working as a civil engineer. He was one of the "700-euro generation" of youth who struggled to advance beyond the average Greek salary.

'Operation of terror'

Eager as they are for a historic victory for the left, Syriza officials are also prepared for a long struggle. "My generation has a chance now with Syriza to stop the disaster. We have no fear of governing," said Mr. Karanikas.

The party's first battle starts on Wednesday, in the first ballot of the parliamentary election for president.

Some analysts predict that renewed fears for Greece's future in the eurozone will convince enough MPs to vote for the government's presidential candidate; or, in the event of a general election, convince enough Greeks to turn the tide in favour of the ruling coalition.

Alexis Tsipras has denounced this tactic as an "operation of terror" by Prime Minister Samaras and European officials.

Some Greeks seem to believe the danger is real, with weekend polls showing that Syriza's lead has narrowed slightly.

But others, like Panagiotis Makridis, a waiter at a Greek coffee shop, are enraged by what they say is blatant scaremongering from the government, Brussels and European capitals.

"So Jean-Claude Juncker is telling me who to vote for? I didn't plan on voting Syriza, but now I just might."

It's Time to Start Paying Attention to Greece Again By Joe Weisenthal (http://www.businessweek.com/)

Photographer: Michael Debets/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

Alexis Tsipras, the leader of SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left) and current leader of the Greek Opposition, is pictured at the beginning of the protest march on Nov. 27, in Athens.

It’s been awhile since Greece was front-page news, so here’s a refresher: A few years ago, it looked as though Greece might be forced to leave the euro zone, as investors lost faith in the country’s ability to pay its debts. In late 2011, 10-year Greek bonds were trading with a yield around 35 percent. The crisis began to dissipate in the summer of 2012, when the center-right New Democracy party eked out the narrowest of election victories and cobbled together a coalition that agreed to a bailout under harsh terms. Since then financial markets have eased considerably, although the economy is still in the gutter.

Anyway, you might want to start paying attention again.

Greece may see elections early next year, and a new poll just out has the radical leftist Syriza party in first place by more than 3 percent. If Syriza takes power, the relative calm of Greek financial markets could be rocked.

STORY: Yasou: Greece Is Pulling Off an Amazing Recovery

So the question is, will Greece in fact hold an early election? It may depend on what happens in late February and early March, when the Greek parliament is set to vote on a new president. Current Prime Minister Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party faces a massive task to keep his government together.

In an e-mail, analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly of Agenda Research explained what might go down:

“[Samaras's] coalition (of New Democracy and Pasok) controls 155 seats in the 300-seat parliament. In order to elect a president, he needs 180 votes in favour of his candidate (the president vote runs in three rounds, if 200 of the 300 MPs do not vote in favour of the candidate in the first two rounds, there is a third round where the majority is reduced to 180, there are 5 days between each round, so the whole process takes over a week. ie, it will be noisey)

“Samaras is 25 seats short of this target, and if he doesn’t get it, an election will be called.”

There are a lot of question marks about whether the current coalition can get to the 180 votes needed. It’s possible that by cajoling enough independent members of parliament, the coalition could get there and keep the government alive. But it will be extremely close, and they could come up short.

STORY: Greece Needs Debt Forgiveness

If an early election is called, and if the leftist Syriza party controls the government, watch out. Ostensibly, Syriza and its leader, Alexis Tsipras, want Greece to stay in the euro zone. But they’re dead set against the current bailout/austerity regime.

Then you’re looking at a potentially huge game of chicken. The European leaders who bailed out Greece will insist that current terms are not going to be renegotiated. The new government will insist that it wants to stay in the euro zone but that the arrangement must change. How that plays out is unpredictable, but it could easily be the major world story to watch early next spring.

Resolve the Real Greek Crisis (New York Times)

By EDWARD P. JOSEPH and ANNA TRIANDAFYLLIDOU

Published: February 5, 2013

Resolve the Real Greek Crisis

FOR Greeks suffering from the wrenching pain of a long economic crisis, a youthful savior has emerged. Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the second-strongest party in Parliament, the Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, is not yet 40, but his relentless attack on austerity has made him a favorite to head the next government.

Tsipras has been visiting power centers in Europe and the United States to bolster his credentials and to press his case for debt relief. He argues that Europe is bluffing with its threat to expel Greece from the euro zone if it doesn’t implement severe cuts.

But even if Tsipras wins the next election, he is likely to fail in his bid for an international conference that would provide dramatic debt relief. The reason is that Greece’s main creditors, Germany in particular, suspect that Tsipras is bluffing as well. They know that the Greek economy hangs like a thread, and that failure to sustain debt relief would plunge Greece into economic free fall.

Thus the impasse over Greece that serves as a brake on Europe’s recovery and has left a quarter of Greeks unemployed is likely to continue — unless Tsipras widens his message. He could wring substantial concessions out of Germany and other creditors if he does what no Greek leader has managed to do: get Greeks to accept the need for national reform, not just austerity and not just debt relief.

The truth is that Greece is not only broke, it is broken. “Uncompetitive” does not describe the pathology of the Greek economy. It is a myriad of small businesses, unproductive subsidies, inflated state contracts and Byzantine regulations seemingly designed to inhibit productivity. In the past, it was sustained by tourism, olives and other small-scale produce, and, of course, loans — which have evaporated. Real relief for Greeks can only come from foreign investment, not loans and not debt relief. And few will invest in Greece without real reform. Indeed, some of Greece’s most successful companies are fleeing the country.

Ironically, even as segments of Greek society still unleash noisy protests, the public knows the truth: They are not innocent victims but willing, if small-scale, participants in a corrupt system. This helps explain why expressions of public anger have been — given the breadth of the disaster — relatively tame. A protest movement known as the “aganaktismenoi,” or the resentful, has emerged, demanding accountability. Long-concealed scandals have come to light, and some prominent members of the political elite have gone to prison, or face the prospect of being jailed. But there is no unifying agenda among protesters, many of whom are animated solely by the prospect of losing their benefits.

Moreover, for all their suffering, most Greeks are aware just how much worse their situation could become. They understand that they have a lot to lose if the country’s fragile banks collapse or if the country defaults. The value of their euro-denominated bank accounts, if converted into new drachma, would plunge.

If anything, anger in Greece is focused outside the country, at Germany in particular, or disgracefully, on the most vulnerable people — poor immigrants — who have benefited least from the country’s corrupt system. Either way, the misdirected anger only distracts Greece from much-needed introspection. And even when there has been reflection, such as the momentary pause in the spring and summer of 2010, Greece has been plagued by the paralysis of collective responsibility: “So maybe I didn’t pay my taxes, but who did?”

The focus of Greek energy these days is not on how to fix the country, but rather on how to survive within the existing system.

At their core, Greeks know better and are not condemned to perpetual cynicism and incipient poverty. They need a leader with the courage and the standing to tell them that the old ways of doing business will not return prosperity.

Greeks have proven that they can move toward meritocracy, as has been illustrated by the general public exam for public administration or university admissions. The unique aspects of Greek culture have their advantages and need not be discarded. Small changes, for example simplifying regulations and putting more information on legislation on the Internet, can have a big effect.

These measures can pave the way for consensus on the larger labor reforms demanded by creditors, very possibly winning the major concessions that Tsipras seeks. Soon, with support from civil society and the Orthodox Church, momentum toward national renewal could reach a tipping point, where the rewards of complying with rules will outweigh flouting them.

In short, Greeks do not have to “become Germans.” They only have to face up to the fact that you can’t get something for nothing forever. A politician with the courage to speak this truth and appeal for a new compact that matches individual and business responsibility with concrete steps toward state transparency can win an election, debt relief and real hope for a battered people.

Edward P. Joseph is senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins Center for trans-Atlantic Relations. Anna Triandafyllidou is professor at the European University Institute.