Give Greece a chance … By Felipe Van Keirsbilck (Alter Summit)

Alter Summit Newsletter - February 2015

Editorial Give Greece a chance … By Felipe Van Keirsbilck (Alter Summit) The spectacular results of the Greek elections on January 25 provoke millions of comments: each announcement, each incident, each manœuvre of the ECB to put pressure on governments shake up the media and the social networks. Alter Summit and its affiliated organisations observe the events from further away, but at the same time with an involvement which brings them closer to them. First the distance: it stems from the fact that our common basis, between more than 100 organisations in 20 countries, can be summarized in a very simple question: how are we going to put a spanner in the wheels of austerity policies? Or, in other words, how are we going to stop European governments to persevere in their policy of austerity? From the basis which has brought us together for nearly 3 years, the political situation in Greece brings about two essential questions (which will be debated at the Alter Summit assembly next 5th and 6th of March): Does the arrival of an anti-austerity government in one (single) country constitute a sufficient event? How can this country confront the Europe of austerity? What is the role Greek and European social networks are playing in this new situation? But the reflection we have been having for two years is not that of a group of “experts”, because our involvement is very real! 18 months ago, there were 2000 of us in Athens demanding a social, ecological, egalitarian and democratic Europe. If needs be, we shall go back to Athens to express our political and material solidarity with a nation having had the courage to vote against the program lines of Brussels and Frankfurt. Whatever happens with political shenanigans and negotiations, this nation deserves to be given a chance to change direction. We will be by its side!

It's Time to Start Paying Attention to Greece Again By Joe Weisenthal (http://www.businessweek.com/)

Photographer: Michael Debets/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

Alexis Tsipras, the leader of SYRIZA (Coalition of the Radical Left) and current leader of the Greek Opposition, is pictured at the beginning of the protest march on Nov. 27, in Athens.

It’s been awhile since Greece was front-page news, so here’s a refresher: A few years ago, it looked as though Greece might be forced to leave the euro zone, as investors lost faith in the country’s ability to pay its debts. In late 2011, 10-year Greek bonds were trading with a yield around 35 percent. The crisis began to dissipate in the summer of 2012, when the center-right New Democracy party eked out the narrowest of election victories and cobbled together a coalition that agreed to a bailout under harsh terms. Since then financial markets have eased considerably, although the economy is still in the gutter.

Anyway, you might want to start paying attention again.

Greece may see elections early next year, and a new poll just out has the radical leftist Syriza party in first place by more than 3 percent. If Syriza takes power, the relative calm of Greek financial markets could be rocked.

STORY: Yasou: Greece Is Pulling Off an Amazing Recovery

So the question is, will Greece in fact hold an early election? It may depend on what happens in late February and early March, when the Greek parliament is set to vote on a new president. Current Prime Minister Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party faces a massive task to keep his government together.

In an e-mail, analyst Lorcan Roche Kelly of Agenda Research explained what might go down:

“[Samaras's] coalition (of New Democracy and Pasok) controls 155 seats in the 300-seat parliament. In order to elect a president, he needs 180 votes in favour of his candidate (the president vote runs in three rounds, if 200 of the 300 MPs do not vote in favour of the candidate in the first two rounds, there is a third round where the majority is reduced to 180, there are 5 days between each round, so the whole process takes over a week. ie, it will be noisey)

“Samaras is 25 seats short of this target, and if he doesn’t get it, an election will be called.”

There are a lot of question marks about whether the current coalition can get to the 180 votes needed. It’s possible that by cajoling enough independent members of parliament, the coalition could get there and keep the government alive. But it will be extremely close, and they could come up short.

STORY: Greece Needs Debt Forgiveness

If an early election is called, and if the leftist Syriza party controls the government, watch out. Ostensibly, Syriza and its leader, Alexis Tsipras, want Greece to stay in the euro zone. But they’re dead set against the current bailout/austerity regime.

Then you’re looking at a potentially huge game of chicken. The European leaders who bailed out Greece will insist that current terms are not going to be renegotiated. The new government will insist that it wants to stay in the euro zone but that the arrangement must change. How that plays out is unpredictable, but it could easily be the major world story to watch early next spring.